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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+2.30vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.37+1.90vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.06+1.67vs Predicted
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4Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+1.57vs Predicted
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5Ocean County College1.73+3.56vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.48+0.32vs Predicted
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7Hamilton College0.75+4.54vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.19+2.09vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.48-2.75vs Predicted
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10U. S. Military Academy0.90+1.18vs Predicted
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11Columbia University1.99-3.33vs Predicted
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12Colgate University1.24-1.91vs Predicted
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13Princeton University1.50-3.83vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester0.44-1.70vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester0.44-2.70vs Predicted
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16Rutgers University0.80-4.46vs Predicted
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17Penn State University-0.14-3.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.3%1st Place
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3.9U. S. Naval Academy3.370.2%1st Place
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4.67SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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5.57Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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8.56Ocean County College1.730.0%1st Place
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6.32Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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11.54Hamilton College0.750.0%1st Place
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10.09Queen's University1.190.0%1st Place
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6.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.480.1%1st Place
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11.18U. S. Military Academy0.900.0%1st Place
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7.67Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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10.09Colgate University1.240.0%1st Place
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9.17Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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12.3University of Rochester0.440.0%1st Place
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12.3University of Rochester0.440.0%1st Place
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11.54Rutgers University0.800.0%1st Place
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13.84Penn State University-0.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Kana | 25.8% | 18.6% | 16.8% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 19.6% | 17.2% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 12.7% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 8.3% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Schippe | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 7.1% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julie Webster | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 16.8% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| Heather Richardson | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Reilly | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Lovo | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 14.1% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Swift | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Freedman | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 14.6% | 17.0% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Freedman | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 14.6% | 17.0% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| Ross Nuechterlein | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 14.4% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Snyder | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 17.1% | 43.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.