Race 1B

admiral-alymers

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Jacob Martz 14.6% 12.6% 12.9% 12.1% 10.5% 9.1% 8.8% 5.4% 5.4% 3.4% 2.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Christopher Jensen 10.8% 11.1% 9.6% 10.3% 9.1% 9.7% 8.8% 7.1% 8.8% 6.7% 3.9% 2.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Peter Christensen 10.0% 6.8% 9.0% 10.0% 9.2% 9.4% 7.8% 11.5% 9.5% 7.0% 4.7% 2.3% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Patrick Penwell 8.0% 9.7% 8.8% 9.5% 8.6% 9.0% 10.9% 8.4% 7.0% 8.8% 6.6% 3.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Kate Levinson 9.5% 11.1% 9.4% 11.1% 8.5% 10.4% 8.9% 8.2% 8.3% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Alexandra Romagnoli 9.1% 8.9% 11.3% 9.7% 9.8% 11.0% 8.8% 7.9% 7.0% 6.4% 5.6% 3.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Rolfe Glover 13.5% 11.3% 13.5% 9.7% 11.4% 8.5% 9.4% 7.3% 5.4% 5.2% 3.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Shannon Killian 8.6% 8.4% 8.7% 8.7% 9.2% 9.9% 9.5% 9.1% 7.8% 6.9% 7.1% 3.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Karl Ryder 3.2% 4.1% 3.2% 3.7% 4.6% 4.6% 5.7% 8.1% 8.3% 9.3% 11.8% 13.6% 9.8% 5.9% 3.3% 0.8%
Reid Secondo 6.1% 6.9% 5.7% 6.2% 7.3% 7.8% 9.9% 9.5% 11.0% 11.2% 7.4% 5.9% 3.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Joseph Dragon 3.4% 4.3% 3.9% 4.6% 5.2% 4.8% 3.6% 7.4% 8.1% 10.0% 12.1% 13.2% 11.8% 5.0% 2.0% 0.6%
Emily Peabody 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.4% 2.0% 2.3% 2.7% 4.7% 8.0% 10.2% 14.9% 15.9% 17.3% 14.8%
Kelsey Martins 1.1% 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 1.8% 1.6% 2.1% 2.2% 4.8% 3.9% 8.0% 11.4% 17.1% 16.6% 15.2% 11.4%
Andrew Silhavy 0.1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.0% 1.4% 1.1% 1.7% 2.4% 4.2% 7.6% 10.4% 15.5% 19.8% 31.7%
Brady Winn 0.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1.3% 0.8% 1.2% 2.2% 1.6% 2.7% 5.7% 8.6% 11.5% 19.3% 20.6% 21.5%
Cordelia Prouvost 0.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 2.3% 2.6% 4.4% 4.7% 9.5% 12.9% 17.8% 20.5% 19.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.