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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.06+3.54vs Predicted
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2Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+3.46vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+0.36vs Predicted
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4Ocean County College1.73+4.67vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.48+1.26vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.37-2.04vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.48-0.71vs Predicted
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8Colgate University1.24+1.98vs Predicted
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9Queen's University1.19+1.18vs Predicted
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10Hamilton College0.75+1.61vs Predicted
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11Princeton University1.50-1.74vs Predicted
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12University of Rochester0.44+0.41vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy0.90-1.93vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-0.14-0.26vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester0.44-2.59vs Predicted
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16Columbia University1.99-8.27vs Predicted
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17Rutgers University0.80-5.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.54SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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5.46Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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3.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.2%1st Place
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8.67Ocean County College1.730.0%1st Place
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6.26Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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3.96U. S. Naval Academy3.370.2%1st Place
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6.29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.480.1%1st Place
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9.98Colgate University1.240.0%1st Place
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10.18Queen's University1.190.0%1st Place
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11.61Hamilton College0.750.0%1st Place
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9.26Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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12.41University of Rochester0.440.0%1st Place
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11.07U. S. Military Academy0.900.0%1st Place
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13.74Penn State University-0.140.0%1st Place
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12.41University of Rochester0.440.0%1st Place
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7.73Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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11.48Rutgers University0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Steel | 13.8% | 15.0% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Kana | 23.8% | 19.5% | 16.9% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Schippe | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 18.2% | 16.9% | 15.6% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Reilly | 9.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Swift | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Heather Richardson | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| Julie Webster | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 16.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Freedman | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 17.2% | 19.3% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Lovo | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Snyder | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 19.7% | 40.7% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Freedman | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 17.2% | 19.3% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ross Nuechterlein | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 15.0% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.