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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+1.70vs Predicted
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2University of Rochester0.89+7.15vs Predicted
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3Princeton University0.77+6.50vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.26+1.67vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.66-2.17vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.89-1.78vs Predicted
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7Columbia University2.13-1.04vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.24+0.17vs Predicted
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9Colgate University-0.28+3.25vs Predicted
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10Rutgers University0.06+1.46vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-5.88vs Predicted
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12University of Rochester0.89-2.85vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College0.20-1.91vs Predicted
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14Hamilton College0.85-4.70vs Predicted
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15Stevens Institute of Technology-0.22-2.89vs Predicted
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16Penn State University-1.44-1.41vs Predicted
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17U. S. Military Academy-0.06-5.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.3%1st Place
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9.15University of Rochester0.890.0%1st Place
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9.5Princeton University0.770.0%1st Place
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5.67SUNY Maritime College2.260.1%1st Place
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2.83U. S. Naval Academy3.660.3%1st Place
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4.22Cornell University2.890.1%1st Place
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5.96Columbia University2.130.1%1st Place
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8.17Queen's University1.240.0%1st Place
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12.25Colgate University-0.280.0%1st Place
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11.46Rutgers University0.060.0%1st Place
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5.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
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9.15University of Rochester0.890.0%1st Place
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11.09Ocean County College0.200.0%1st Place
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9.3Hamilton College0.850.0%1st Place
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12.11Stevens Institute of Technology-0.220.0%1st Place
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14.59Penn State University-1.440.0%1st Place
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11.86U. S. Military Academy-0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 29.4% | 24.4% | 20.1% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Buchanan, III | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Tucker Willsie | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Scott Lubliner | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Carminati | 27.8% | 23.8% | 17.2% | 13.8% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 11.3% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 14.7% | 15.3% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ira Carson | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chloe Smith | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 16.1% | 16.9% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Richardson | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 12.9% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 8.8% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Buchanan, III | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Rinaldi | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Keith MacArtney | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Peter McCauley | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 16.2% | 16.1% | 10.8% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hutchison | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 15.7% | 57.9% | 0.0% |
| Stan Benarick | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 14.4% | 15.5% | 7.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.