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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+1.75vs Predicted
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2Columbia University2.13+3.85vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.66-0.21vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.89+0.19vs Predicted
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5University of Rochester0.89+4.20vs Predicted
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6Ocean County College0.20+5.15vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-1.77vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.26-2.50vs Predicted
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9Colgate University-0.28+3.25vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.77-0.47vs Predicted
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11Queen's University1.24-2.79vs Predicted
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12Stevens Institute of Technology-0.22+0.15vs Predicted
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13University of Rochester0.89-3.80vs Predicted
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14Hamilton College0.85-4.68vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy-0.06-3.28vs Predicted
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16Penn State University-1.44-1.39vs Predicted
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17Rutgers University0.06-5.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.3%1st Place
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5.85Columbia University2.130.1%1st Place
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2.79U. S. Naval Academy3.660.3%1st Place
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4.19Cornell University2.890.1%1st Place
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9.2University of Rochester0.890.0%1st Place
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11.15Ocean County College0.200.0%1st Place
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5.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
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5.5SUNY Maritime College2.260.1%1st Place
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12.25Colgate University-0.280.0%1st Place
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9.53Princeton University0.770.0%1st Place
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8.21Queen's University1.240.0%1st Place
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12.15Stevens Institute of Technology-0.220.0%1st Place
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9.2University of Rochester0.890.0%1st Place
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9.32Hamilton College0.850.0%1st Place
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11.72U. S. Military Academy-0.060.0%1st Place
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14.61Penn State University-1.440.0%1st Place
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11.55Rutgers University0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 28.0% | 24.6% | 19.1% | 13.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Carminati | 27.9% | 23.7% | 19.4% | 13.0% | 8.3% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 12.1% | 14.0% | 15.6% | 14.8% | 16.1% | 13.0% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Buchanan, III | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Rinaldi | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 13.3% | 10.4% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 9.0% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Lubliner | 6.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chloe Smith | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 13.6% | 15.9% | 17.6% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| Tucker Willsie | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Ira Carson | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter McCauley | 0.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 19.5% | 10.8% | 0.0% |
| William Buchanan, III | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Keith MacArtney | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Stan Benarick | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 15.1% | 13.6% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hutchison | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 15.3% | 57.2% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Richardson | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.