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📊 Prediction Accuracy
70.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.66+1.68vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+0.78vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.89+1.16vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+1.15vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.26+0.50vs Predicted
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6Columbia University2.13-0.11vs Predicted
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7University of Rochester0.89+2.07vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.24+0.01vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology-0.22+2.96vs Predicted
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10University of Rochester0.89-0.93vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.77-1.52vs Predicted
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12Ocean County College0.49-1.84vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy-0.06-1.35vs Predicted
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14Colgate University-0.36-1.65vs Predicted
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15Hamilton College0.10-3.81vs Predicted
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16Rutgers University0.06-4.61vs Predicted
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17Penn State University-1.44-2.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.68U. S. Naval Academy3.660.3%1st Place
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2.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.3%1st Place
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4.16Cornell University2.890.1%1st Place
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5.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
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5.5SUNY Maritime College2.260.1%1st Place
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5.89Columbia University2.130.1%1st Place
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9.07University of Rochester0.890.0%1st Place
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8.01Queen's University1.240.0%1st Place
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11.96Stevens Institute of Technology-0.220.0%1st Place
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9.07University of Rochester0.890.0%1st Place
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9.48Princeton University0.770.0%1st Place
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10.16Ocean County College0.490.0%1st Place
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11.65U. S. Military Academy-0.060.0%1st Place
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12.35Colgate University-0.360.0%1st Place
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11.19Hamilton College0.100.0%1st Place
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11.39Rutgers University0.060.0%1st Place
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14.58Penn State University-1.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Carminati | 31.4% | 21.8% | 19.5% | 12.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 28.7% | 24.3% | 18.6% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 12.1% | 14.4% | 14.8% | 16.7% | 14.7% | 13.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 6.6% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 15.7% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Lubliner | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 9.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 5.5% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Buchanan, III | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ira Carson | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter McCauley | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 15.2% | 15.7% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| William Buchanan, III | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Tucker Willsie | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 14.2% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Autumn Hoover | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Stan Benarick | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| Leah Feldman | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 15.4% | 18.0% | 12.7% | 0.0% |
| Leeds Pierce | 0.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Richardson | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 14.7% | 15.0% | 11.0% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hutchison | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 8.2% | 17.1% | 55.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.