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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.66+1.72vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.89+2.11vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+2.07vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-1.21vs Predicted
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5University of Rochester0.89+4.12vs Predicted
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6Columbia University2.13-0.08vs Predicted
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7Ocean County College0.49+3.24vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.26-2.50vs Predicted
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9Princeton University0.77+0.30vs Predicted
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10Rutgers University0.06+1.39vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester0.89-1.88vs Predicted
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12Queen's University1.24-3.95vs Predicted
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13Stevens Institute of Technology-0.22-0.98vs Predicted
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14Colgate University-0.36-1.67vs Predicted
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15Hamilton College0.10-3.85vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy-0.06-4.27vs Predicted
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17Penn State University-1.44-2.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.72U. S. Naval Academy3.660.3%1st Place
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4.11Cornell University2.890.1%1st Place
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5.07U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
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2.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.3%1st Place
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9.12University of Rochester0.890.0%1st Place
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5.92Columbia University2.130.1%1st Place
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10.24Ocean County College0.490.0%1st Place
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5.5SUNY Maritime College2.260.1%1st Place
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9.3Princeton University0.770.0%1st Place
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11.39Rutgers University0.060.0%1st Place
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9.12University of Rochester0.890.0%1st Place
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8.05Queen's University1.240.0%1st Place
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12.02Stevens Institute of Technology-0.220.0%1st Place
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12.33Colgate University-0.360.0%1st Place
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11.15Hamilton College0.100.0%1st Place
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11.73U. S. Military Academy-0.060.0%1st Place
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14.56Penn State University-1.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Carminati | 29.3% | 24.5% | 16.6% | 14.6% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 14.3% | 12.7% | 17.0% | 15.8% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 15.8% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 8.1% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 27.5% | 24.1% | 18.5% | 14.1% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Buchanan, III | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 5.2% | 5.7% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 14.4% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Autumn Hoover | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Scott Lubliner | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 14.6% | 10.6% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tucker Willsie | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Richardson | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 12.0% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| William Buchanan, III | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ira Carson | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter McCauley | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 13.6% | 16.3% | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| Leah Feldman | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 18.7% | 12.6% | 0.0% |
| Leeds Pierce | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Stan Benarick | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 16.1% | 13.8% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hutchison | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 16.3% | 55.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.