← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+1.69vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Naval Academy3.66+0.76vs Predicted
-
3Cornell University2.89+1.13vs Predicted
-
4SUNY Maritime College2.26+1.58vs Predicted
-
5Columbia University2.13+0.78vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-0.89vs Predicted
-
7Ocean County College0.20+3.95vs Predicted
-
8Queen's University1.24-0.04vs Predicted
-
9Princeton University0.77+0.21vs Predicted
-
10Colgate University-0.36+2.36vs Predicted
-
11University of Rochester0.89-2.04vs Predicted
-
12Rutgers University0.06-0.71vs Predicted
-
13Hamilton College0.10-1.86vs Predicted
-
14University of Rochester0.89-5.04vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Military Academy-0.06-3.52vs Predicted
-
16Stevens Institute of Technology-0.22-3.94vs Predicted
-
17Penn State University-1.44-2.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.3%1st Place
-
2.76U. S. Naval Academy3.660.3%1st Place
-
4.13Cornell University2.890.1%1st Place
-
5.58SUNY Maritime College2.260.1%1st Place
-
5.78Columbia University2.130.1%1st Place
-
5.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
-
10.95Ocean County College0.200.0%1st Place
-
7.96Queen's University1.240.0%1st Place
-
9.21Princeton University0.770.0%1st Place
-
12.36Colgate University-0.360.0%1st Place
-
8.96University of Rochester0.890.0%1st Place
-
11.29Rutgers University0.060.0%1st Place
-
11.14Hamilton College0.100.0%1st Place
-
8.96University of Rochester0.890.0%1st Place
-
11.48U. S. Military Academy-0.060.0%1st Place
-
12.06Stevens Institute of Technology-0.220.0%1st Place
-
14.54Penn State University-1.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 30.3% | 23.3% | 19.0% | 13.3% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Carminati | 29.2% | 24.3% | 17.4% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 11.7% | 15.0% | 15.1% | 17.8% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Lubliner | 5.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 14.7% | 14.2% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 14.6% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 7.5% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 15.5% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Rinaldi | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Ira Carson | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tucker Willsie | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Leah Feldman | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 15.3% | 19.3% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| William Buchanan, III | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 14.7% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Richardson | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| Leeds Pierce | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 14.2% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| William Buchanan, III | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 14.7% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Stan Benarick | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 6.6% | 0.0% |
| Peter McCauley | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 15.2% | 17.7% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hutchison | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 15.5% | 55.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.