Race 2B

morton-schapiro

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Joseph Gallagher 15.3% 14.8% 15.0% 12.8% 11.5% 10.8% 8.6% 6.2% 3.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Rachel Bartel 17.2% 15.8% 14.3% 12.7% 13.3% 9.8% 7.6% 5.8% 2.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1%
Brittany Shabino 7.0% 10.0% 9.6% 9.5% 10.9% 12.5% 13.0% 11.1% 9.0% 5.0% 2.2% 0.2%
Nicole Giuliani 21.5% 17.3% 16.3% 13.2% 11.4% 8.5% 5.5% 3.5% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Michael Rivkin 11.6% 12.8% 11.3% 13.4% 11.5% 12.4% 10.1% 8.4% 5.7% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Gordon Fream 4.4% 5.5% 6.3% 6.7% 8.8% 9.7% 10.2% 13.6% 15.3% 11.9% 6.0% 1.4%
Clara Brown 8.1% 9.1% 9.2% 10.2% 11.1% 11.3% 12.0% 11.5% 10.3% 5.4% 1.5% 0.4%
Phineas Tait 8.1% 7.3% 9.1% 9.8% 9.0% 11.7% 11.8% 13.5% 8.9% 7.3% 2.9% 0.7%
River Martin 1.6% 1.6% 2.1% 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 5.4% 6.1% 10.4% 19.6% 26.1% 18.3%
Eva Rossell 3.1% 3.2% 4.4% 5.6% 6.3% 6.4% 10.2% 12.2% 17.9% 17.3% 10.3% 3.0%
Devin Shah 1.2% 1.6% 1.5% 2.1% 2.1% 2.4% 3.5% 5.0% 9.8% 16.4% 27.6% 27.1%
Rachel Spahn 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 2.2% 3.1% 5.2% 12.2% 21.9% 48.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.