Race 5B

morton-schapiro

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Nicole Giuliani 27.0% 22.4% 17.5% 12.8% 9.5% 6.2% 2.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Michael Rivkin 15.3% 16.0% 15.6% 15.2% 12.4% 11.6% 7.9% 4.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Phineas Tait 9.0% 9.8% 11.5% 11.0% 13.3% 13.6% 13.2% 10.5% 5.5% 2.1% 0.4%
Brittany Shabino 9.4% 11.1% 11.1% 13.4% 14.9% 12.8% 11.2% 9.2% 5.1% 1.8% 0.1%
Joseph Gallagher 18.6% 18.1% 18.2% 15.7% 12.2% 8.4% 5.1% 2.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
River Martin 2.1% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 5.2% 7.0% 11.1% 20.3% 25.7% 15.7%
Gordon Fream 6.5% 7.0% 7.8% 9.4% 11.4% 13.2% 14.9% 13.0% 11.1% 4.5% 1.3%
Ella Finnegan 5.3% 6.0% 7.1% 7.1% 8.9% 11.2% 14.9% 16.1% 13.4% 7.6% 2.2%
Rachel Spahn 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 1.7% 2.2% 2.5% 3.5% 6.0% 10.8% 21.2% 49.2%
Eva Rossell 5.1% 4.5% 5.7% 7.6% 8.1% 11.5% 13.1% 17.2% 14.1% 9.7% 3.4%
Devin Shah 0.8% 1.2% 1.8% 2.6% 3.1% 4.0% 6.1% 9.0% 16.7% 27.0% 27.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.