Race 8B

morton-schapiro

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Phineas Tait 10.0% 9.6% 11.8% 13.5% 17.2% 13.9% 13.0% 7.2% 2.8% 1.0% 0.1%
Nicole Giuliani 30.7% 21.8% 18.4% 13.0% 8.5% 5.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Gordon Fream 7.1% 8.8% 9.6% 11.0% 13.0% 15.2% 15.2% 10.5% 5.8% 3.5% 0.4%
Michael Rivkin 18.0% 16.6% 17.6% 17.4% 12.8% 8.8% 5.2% 2.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1%
Joseph Gallagher 19.7% 22.6% 19.4% 15.3% 11.6% 5.5% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
River Martin 2.1% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 5.1% 7.8% 10.9% 17.8% 18.8% 17.8% 11.2%
Ella Finnegan 4.7% 6.6% 7.3% 10.6% 10.5% 15.0% 16.0% 14.2% 9.6% 4.2% 1.4%
Devin Shah 1.7% 1.9% 2.5% 2.8% 4.7% 6.6% 8.2% 13.2% 17.9% 21.8% 18.6%
Eva Rossell 4.0% 6.7% 7.0% 9.8% 10.8% 13.9% 14.9% 14.5% 11.8% 5.2% 1.5%
Rachel Spahn 1.1% 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 3.2% 4.2% 4.2% 8.1% 15.1% 23.7% 35.9%
Luqman Waheeduddin 1.1% 1.5% 1.8% 2.1% 2.8% 4.0% 6.8% 9.7% 16.8% 22.7% 30.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.