← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy3.66+1.70vs Predicted
-
2Cornell University2.89+2.10vs Predicted
-
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-0.24vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+1.11vs Predicted
-
5SUNY Maritime College2.26+0.47vs Predicted
-
6Ocean County College0.20+4.91vs Predicted
-
7Columbia University2.13-1.14vs Predicted
-
8Queen's University1.24-0.02vs Predicted
-
9University of Rochester0.89-0.03vs Predicted
-
10Hamilton College0.10+1.18vs Predicted
-
11Rutgers University0.06+0.20vs Predicted
-
12Princeton University0.77-2.63vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Military Academy-0.06-1.42vs Predicted
-
14University of Rochester0.89-5.03vs Predicted
-
15Stevens Institute of Technology-0.22-3.08vs Predicted
-
16Penn State University-1.44-1.48vs Predicted
-
17Colgate University-0.36-4.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.7U. S. Naval Academy3.660.3%1st Place
-
4.1Cornell University2.890.1%1st Place
-
2.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.3%1st Place
-
5.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
-
5.47SUNY Maritime College2.260.1%1st Place
-
10.91Ocean County College0.200.0%1st Place
-
5.86Columbia University2.130.1%1st Place
-
7.98Queen's University1.240.0%1st Place
-
8.97University of Rochester0.890.0%1st Place
-
11.18Hamilton College0.100.0%1st Place
-
11.2Rutgers University0.060.0%1st Place
-
9.37Princeton University0.770.0%1st Place
-
11.58U. S. Military Academy-0.060.0%1st Place
-
8.97University of Rochester0.890.0%1st Place
-
11.92Stevens Institute of Technology-0.220.0%1st Place
-
14.52Penn State University-1.440.0%1st Place
-
12.38Colgate University-0.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Carminati | 29.1% | 23.0% | 21.1% | 12.5% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 14.2% | 14.1% | 14.6% | 17.4% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 27.5% | 25.1% | 17.3% | 15.0% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 6.9% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 15.7% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Lubliner | 6.8% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 15.0% | 13.4% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Rinaldi | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ira Carson | 1.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Buchanan, III | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Leeds Pierce | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 16.2% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Richardson | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 13.8% | 11.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Tucker Willsie | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Stan Benarick | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 13.7% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| William Buchanan, III | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Peter McCauley | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 16.2% | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hutchison | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 57.6% | 0.0% |
| Leah Feldman | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 19.4% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.