← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+1.71vs Predicted
-
2Cornell University2.89+2.12vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy3.66-0.28vs Predicted
-
4SUNY Maritime College2.26+1.54vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+0.06vs Predicted
-
6University of Rochester0.89+3.07vs Predicted
-
7Columbia University2.13-1.18vs Predicted
-
8Ocean County College0.20+2.81vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Military Academy-0.06+2.50vs Predicted
-
10Queen's University1.24-1.93vs Predicted
-
11University of Rochester0.89-1.93vs Predicted
-
12Princeton University0.77-2.69vs Predicted
-
13Hamilton College0.10-1.80vs Predicted
-
14Colgate University-0.36-1.69vs Predicted
-
15Rutgers University0.06-3.84vs Predicted
-
16Stevens Institute of Technology-0.22-3.93vs Predicted
-
17Penn State University-1.44-2.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.3%1st Place
-
4.12Cornell University2.890.1%1st Place
-
2.72U. S. Naval Academy3.660.3%1st Place
-
5.54SUNY Maritime College2.260.1%1st Place
-
5.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
-
9.07University of Rochester0.890.0%1st Place
-
5.82Columbia University2.130.1%1st Place
-
10.81Ocean County College0.200.0%1st Place
-
11.5U. S. Military Academy-0.060.0%1st Place
-
8.07Queen's University1.240.0%1st Place
-
9.07University of Rochester0.890.0%1st Place
-
9.31Princeton University0.770.0%1st Place
-
11.2Hamilton College0.100.0%1st Place
-
12.31Colgate University-0.360.0%1st Place
-
11.16Rutgers University0.060.0%1st Place
-
12.07Stevens Institute of Technology-0.220.0%1st Place
-
14.52Penn State University-1.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 28.5% | 22.8% | 21.7% | 13.2% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 14.0% | 14.0% | 15.9% | 14.7% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Carminati | 28.3% | 24.6% | 18.3% | 14.1% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Lubliner | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 13.6% | 15.1% | 13.1% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 7.4% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 14.7% | 14.5% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Buchanan, III | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 15.4% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Rinaldi | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 14.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Stan Benarick | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 13.3% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Ira Carson | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 14.5% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Buchanan, III | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Tucker Willsie | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 14.0% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Leeds Pierce | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Leah Feldman | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 14.4% | 18.1% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Richardson | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| Peter McCauley | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 15.8% | 17.2% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hutchison | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 14.9% | 55.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.