Race 1A

northwest-spring

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Ryan Grosch 12.2% 12.4% 13.2% 14.1% 11.4% 13.9% 10.9% 8.5% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Emily Oltrogge 13.7% 15.0% 13.3% 12.9% 12.9% 11.3% 11.1% 7.2% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Soren Walljasper 14.4% 13.3% 16.9% 11.9% 12.6% 12.9% 9.8% 5.9% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Christopher Cyr 11.5% 14.6% 12.6% 14.1% 11.5% 12.1% 11.2% 8.7% 3.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Ian Norman 5.9% 6.8% 6.0% 8.7% 10.8% 10.8% 15.4% 19.8% 11.4% 3.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Lucas Bertolet 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 1.5% 1.6% 3.6% 5.7% 16.5% 26.7% 28.4% 13.0%
Amelia Shankwitz 8.2% 8.1% 9.9% 8.7% 10.8% 12.1% 14.8% 16.9% 8.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1%
Mike Flanigan 21.1% 16.8% 14.0% 12.7% 12.4% 9.7% 6.0% 5.2% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Tyler Weiss 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 1.8% 1.8% 4.0% 19.3% 27.4% 27.2% 14.9%
Harry Posner 0.7% 0.2% 1.1% 1.7% 2.8% 2.0% 1.9% 5.8% 20.6% 26.9% 24.3% 12.0%
Bryan Enriquez 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 0.2% 1.4% 6.3% 10.7% 18.6% 59.9%
James Harvey 10.4% 11.1% 11.5% 12.9% 12.1% 10.9% 13.3% 10.9% 6.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.