Race 4A

northwest-spring

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

25.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Emily Oltrogge 13.0% 13.4% 12.5% 13.9% 13.9% 12.0% 10.9% 7.1% 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Christopher Cyr 11.8% 15.3% 12.1% 12.8% 11.8% 12.0% 11.0% 9.9% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Mike Flanigan 17.9% 15.9% 15.7% 13.4% 13.5% 10.5% 7.4% 4.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ian Norman 5.9% 5.2% 8.1% 9.3% 9.7% 10.8% 14.5% 20.1% 12.4% 3.7% 0.3% 0.0%
James Harvey 10.5% 12.1% 11.5% 12.2% 11.5% 12.9% 13.2% 9.8% 5.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ryan Grosch 13.7% 12.4% 11.8% 14.3% 12.7% 12.0% 11.1% 8.4% 3.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Soren Walljasper 16.1% 15.1% 15.9% 12.2% 11.5% 11.4% 9.7% 6.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Amelia Shankwitz 8.8% 8.5% 9.1% 9.0% 10.1% 12.9% 13.6% 18.0% 7.5% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Lucas Bertolet 0.8% 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 2.8% 5.8% 19.6% 27.6% 26.5% 12.2%
Tyler Weiss 0.3% 0.4% 0.8% 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 2.5% 4.0% 16.1% 27.0% 28.3% 15.6%
Bryan Enriquez 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 1.3% 6.1% 10.1% 18.6% 60.7%
Harry Posner 0.7% 0.8% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 1.7% 2.8% 5.1% 21.4% 26.8% 25.7% 11.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.