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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Minnesota2.13+2.14vs Predicted
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2University of Minnesota2.53+0.48vs Predicted
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3William and Mary1.20+1.86vs Predicted
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4University of Notre Dame0.86+1.58vs Predicted
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5University of Michigan0.51+1.33vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin0.74-0.12vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin1.27-2.38vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan-1.18+0.67vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University-1.01-1.60vs Predicted
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12Washington University0.67-6.04vs Predicted
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14University of Notre Dame-1.35-3.94vs Predicted
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17University of Chicago-1.32-6.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.14University of Minnesota2.130.2%1st Place
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2.48University of Minnesota2.530.3%1st Place
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4.86William and Mary1.200.1%1st Place
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5.58University of Notre Dame0.860.1%1st Place
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6.33University of Michigan0.510.0%1st Place
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5.88University of Wisconsin0.740.1%1st Place
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4.62University of Wisconsin1.270.1%1st Place
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9.67University of Michigan-1.180.0%1st Place
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9.4Northwestern University-1.010.0%1st Place
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5.96Washington University0.670.1%1st Place
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10.06University of Notre Dame-1.350.0%1st Place
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10.02University of Chicago-1.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alison Kent | 22.3% | 20.0% | 20.6% | 15.2% | 10.7% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wheeler Morris | 32.3% | 27.5% | 18.0% | 10.8% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Megan McMahon | 9.4% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Christian Koerwer | 5.4% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Davidson | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Ian Walter | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 14.5% | 15.3% | 10.0% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Jamieson | 11.9% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 14.8% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Zachary Frankel | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 13.7% | 18.6% | 23.2% | 22.5% |
| Cameron Tehranchi | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 10.0% | 15.1% | 22.0% | 20.2% | 16.6% |
| Theodore Cohen | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Alex Jones | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 17.3% | 25.9% | 29.3% |
| Katy Carlyle | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 10.9% | 19.1% | 22.4% | 30.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.