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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.66+1.71vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+0.76vs Predicted
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3Columbia University2.13+2.74vs Predicted
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4Queen's University1.24+4.15vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+0.02vs Predicted
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6Ocean County College0.20+4.93vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.89-2.81vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.26-2.58vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester0.89-0.05vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.77-0.65vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester0.89-2.05vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University0.06-0.81vs Predicted
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13Hamilton College0.10-1.83vs Predicted
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14Stevens Institute of Technology-0.22-2.04vs Predicted
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15U. S. Military Academy-0.06-3.47vs Predicted
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16Penn State University-1.44-1.47vs Predicted
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17Colgate University-0.36-4.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.71U. S. Naval Academy3.660.3%1st Place
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2.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.3%1st Place
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5.74Columbia University2.130.1%1st Place
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8.15Queen's University1.240.0%1st Place
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5.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
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10.93Ocean County College0.200.0%1st Place
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4.19Cornell University2.890.1%1st Place
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5.42SUNY Maritime College2.260.1%1st Place
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8.95University of Rochester0.890.0%1st Place
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9.35Princeton University0.770.0%1st Place
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8.95University of Rochester0.890.0%1st Place
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11.19Rutgers University0.060.0%1st Place
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11.17Hamilton College0.100.0%1st Place
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11.96Stevens Institute of Technology-0.220.0%1st Place
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11.53U. S. Military Academy-0.060.0%1st Place
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14.53Penn State University-1.440.0%1st Place
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12.39Colgate University-0.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Carminati | 28.6% | 24.8% | 19.2% | 12.6% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 29.2% | 23.9% | 16.3% | 13.7% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Coplon | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 15.4% | 14.7% | 10.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ira Carson | 1.7% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 8.1% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Rinaldi | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 8.7% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 12.6% | 13.7% | 15.4% | 16.1% | 14.9% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Lubliner | 6.4% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Buchanan, III | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Tucker Willsie | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| William Buchanan, III | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Richardson | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| Leeds Pierce | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| Peter McCauley | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 14.5% | 15.4% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| Stan Benarick | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hutchison | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 9.1% | 15.1% | 56.4% | 0.0% |
| Leah Feldman | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 13.2% | 20.3% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.