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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland1.79+8.49vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+5.02vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.19+4.95vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.04+4.66vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.65+4.70vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.25+1.36vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin1.60+2.92vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University1.69+3.06vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.62+1.35vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+0.51vs Predicted
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11University of Miami0.58+3.42vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.42-2.64vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.67-3.36vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston2.23-6.10vs Predicted
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15Stanford University2.41-7.87vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania1.60-5.40vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University2.20-9.31vs Predicted
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18University of South Florida1.19-5.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.49St. Mary's College of Maryland1.795.7%1st Place
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7.02U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.329.2%1st Place
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7.95George Washington University2.197.2%1st Place
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8.66Tulane University2.046.5%1st Place
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9.7Boston University1.654.5%1st Place
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7.36U. S. Naval Academy2.259.3%1st Place
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9.92University of Wisconsin1.604.0%1st Place
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11.06Roger Williams University1.694.0%1st Place
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10.35Fordham University1.623.1%1st Place
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10.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.6%1st Place
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14.42University of Miami0.581.8%1st Place
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9.36SUNY Maritime College0.425.4%1st Place
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9.64Tufts University1.674.9%1st Place
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7.9College of Charleston2.237.2%1st Place
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7.13Stanford University2.418.8%1st Place
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10.6University of Pennsylvania1.604.2%1st Place
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7.69Georgetown University2.207.5%1st Place
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12.25University of South Florida1.192.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taft Buckley | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 2.9% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Michael Ehnot | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Thad Lettsome | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| Micky Munns | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% |
| Gavin McJones | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 4.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.3% |
| John Walton | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 7.3% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% |
| Jonathan Gleason | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 37.2% |
| Nick Chisari | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% |
| John Eastman | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% |
| Brandon Geller | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Justin Lim | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Gavula | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.0% |
| Diego Escobar | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Humberto Porrata | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 14.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.