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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+6.01vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.20+5.93vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.25+4.64vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.23+4.12vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin1.60+5.20vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College0.42+3.49vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.60+3.79vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+2.80vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University1.69+2.18vs Predicted
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10Tulane University1.42+1.47vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.19-3.03vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland1.79-2.28vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.65-3.17vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.67-4.23vs Predicted
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15Stanford University2.41-7.88vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida1.19-3.65vs Predicted
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17University of Miami1.93-7.82vs Predicted
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18Fordham University1.62-7.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.01U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.328.7%1st Place
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7.93Georgetown University2.207.5%1st Place
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7.64U. S. Naval Academy2.257.8%1st Place
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8.12College of Charleston2.238.0%1st Place
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10.2University of Wisconsin1.604.4%1st Place
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9.49SUNY Maritime College0.426.1%1st Place
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10.79University of Pennsylvania1.604.0%1st Place
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10.8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.8%1st Place
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11.18Roger Williams University1.693.5%1st Place
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11.47Tulane University1.423.5%1st Place
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7.97George Washington University2.197.2%1st Place
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9.72St. Mary's College of Maryland1.795.1%1st Place
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9.83Boston University1.654.9%1st Place
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9.77Tufts University1.675.3%1st Place
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7.12Stanford University2.418.6%1st Place
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12.35University of South Florida1.192.2%1st Place
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9.18University of Miami1.935.4%1st Place
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10.44Fordham University1.624.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| Diego Escobar | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Gavin McJones | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| Brandon Geller | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.2% |
| Nick Chisari | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.6% |
| Samuel Gavula | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 9.6% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 10.0% |
| John Walton | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 10.0% |
| William Keenan | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 12.3% |
| Michael Ehnot | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Taft Buckley | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.2% |
| Micky Munns | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% |
| John Eastman | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% |
| Justin Lim | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Humberto Porrata | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 17.6% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.