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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.88+5.26vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.42vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59+4.12vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48+6.54vs Predicted
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5Princeton University1.87+3.06vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.44+1.49vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.53+0.39vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.54+2.81vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.72-2.17vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin1.36-1.99vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan0.26+0.75vs Predicted
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12Washington College1.66-4.77vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-3.44vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.90-7.14vs Predicted
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15Cornell University0.36-3.51vs Predicted
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16Cornell University0.46-4.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.26SUNY Maritime College1.8810.3%1st Place
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5.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1613.4%1st Place
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7.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.597.5%1st Place
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10.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.482.9%1st Place
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8.06Princeton University1.876.0%1st Place
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7.49Cornell University1.446.2%1st Place
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7.39Fordham University1.538.0%1st Place
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10.81University of Vermont0.542.8%1st Place
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6.83University of Pennsylvania1.728.4%1st Place
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8.01University of Wisconsin1.366.9%1st Place
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11.75University of Michigan0.262.4%1st Place
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7.23Washington College1.668.2%1st Place
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9.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.973.5%1st Place
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6.86Cornell University1.907.3%1st Place
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11.49Cornell University0.363.1%1st Place
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11.2Cornell University0.463.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Will Murray | 13.4% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 10.4% |
| Connor Mraz | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| Michael Burns | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Luke Quine | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 14.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 8.4% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Reed Weston | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 1.5% |
| Isabel Dziuba | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 15.1% | 22.5% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% |
| Lilly Myers | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Ben Rizika | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 14.9% | 18.4% |
| Aidan Lane | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 17.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.