← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+4.40vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+7.15vs Predicted
-
3Cornell University1.90+3.93vs Predicted
-
4SUNY Maritime College1.88+2.12vs Predicted
-
5University of Michigan0.26+6.74vs Predicted
-
6University of Wisconsin1.36+2.01vs Predicted
-
7Princeton University1.87+1.14vs Predicted
-
8University of Pennsylvania1.72-1.29vs Predicted
-
9University of Vermont0.54+1.81vs Predicted
-
10Cornell University1.44-2.34vs Predicted
-
11Cornell University0.36+0.56vs Predicted
-
12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59-4.79vs Predicted
-
13Cornell University0.46-1.78vs Predicted
-
14Fordham University1.53-6.53vs Predicted
-
15Washington College1.66-7.70vs Predicted
-
16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-5.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1613.5%1st Place
-
9.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.974.2%1st Place
-
6.93Cornell University1.907.8%1st Place
-
6.12SUNY Maritime College1.889.8%1st Place
-
11.74University of Michigan0.262.4%1st Place
-
8.01University of Wisconsin1.365.6%1st Place
-
8.14Princeton University1.877.0%1st Place
-
6.71University of Pennsylvania1.728.8%1st Place
-
10.81University of Vermont0.542.9%1st Place
-
7.66Cornell University1.447.6%1st Place
-
11.56Cornell University0.362.8%1st Place
-
7.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.598.6%1st Place
-
11.22Cornell University0.462.7%1st Place
-
7.47Fordham University1.537.1%1st Place
-
7.3Washington College1.667.0%1st Place
-
10.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.482.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 13.5% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% |
| Lilly Myers | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Spencer Barnes | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Isabel Dziuba | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 14.6% | 22.9% |
| Reed Weston | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.3% |
| Torrey Chisari | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Luke Quine | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 13.2% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 15.2% | 20.0% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 8.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 16.8% |
| Michael Burns | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 11.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.