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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+4.41vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College1.88+4.05vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.72+3.88vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59+3.19vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.90+1.95vs Predicted
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6Washington College1.66+1.17vs Predicted
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7Princeton University1.87+1.17vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+1.43vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.44-1.21vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.46+1.29vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin1.36-2.92vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.53-4.76vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan0.26-1.12vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-3.70vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.54-4.24vs Predicted
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16Cornell University0.36-4.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1614.1%1st Place
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6.05SUNY Maritime College1.8811.2%1st Place
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6.88University of Pennsylvania1.727.8%1st Place
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7.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.598.3%1st Place
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6.95Cornell University1.908.6%1st Place
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7.17Washington College1.667.4%1st Place
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8.17Princeton University1.875.0%1st Place
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9.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.974.2%1st Place
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7.79Cornell University1.446.2%1st Place
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11.29Cornell University0.462.6%1st Place
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8.08University of Wisconsin1.366.5%1st Place
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7.24Fordham University1.538.5%1st Place
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11.88University of Michigan0.261.7%1st Place
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10.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.482.4%1st Place
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10.76University of Vermont0.543.4%1st Place
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11.4Cornell University0.362.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 14.1% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 11.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Torrey Chisari | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Lilly Myers | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 6.0% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 17.8% |
| Reed Weston | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| Michael Burns | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Isabel Dziuba | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 15.6% | 22.0% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 10.5% |
| Luke Quine | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 12.5% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 19.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.