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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.72+5.69vs Predicted
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2Princeton University1.87+6.08vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.90+4.14vs Predicted
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4Cornell University0.46+7.30vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+0.49vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+3.48vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College1.88-0.99vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin1.36-0.09vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.54+1.76vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48+0.57vs Predicted
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11Washington College1.66-3.79vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59-4.86vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.53-5.71vs Predicted
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14Cornell University0.36-2.40vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan0.26-3.23vs Predicted
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16Cornell University1.44-8.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.69University of Pennsylvania1.7210.0%1st Place
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8.08Princeton University1.876.3%1st Place
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7.14Cornell University1.907.8%1st Place
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11.3Cornell University0.461.9%1st Place
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5.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1612.9%1st Place
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9.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.974.0%1st Place
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6.01SUNY Maritime College1.8810.1%1st Place
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7.91University of Wisconsin1.365.6%1st Place
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10.76University of Vermont0.543.5%1st Place
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10.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.483.0%1st Place
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7.21Washington College1.667.1%1st Place
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7.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.597.7%1st Place
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7.29Fordham University1.537.8%1st Place
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11.6Cornell University0.362.1%1st Place
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11.77University of Michigan0.262.8%1st Place
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7.56Cornell University1.447.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | 10.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Connor Mraz | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
| Lilly Myers | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Aidan Lane | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 14.8% | 17.8% |
| Will Murray | 12.9% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 5.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 10.1% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Reed Weston | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| Luke Quine | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 12.6% |
| Patrick Modin | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 11.2% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Michael Burns | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 15.7% | 18.9% |
| Isabel Dziuba | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 13.2% | 22.8% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.