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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.06+2.00vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.92-0.12vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.38+3.07vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.78+0.27vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.58-0.50vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii1.65-3.38vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.97+0.36vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay-0.45-1.55vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.13-3.55vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-2.03-1.07vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-1.02-3.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.0University of California at Santa Barbara2.060.2%1st Place
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1.88Stanford University2.920.5%1st Place
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6.07Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.380.0%1st Place
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5.27University of Southern California0.780.0%1st Place
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5.5University of California at Los Angeles0.580.1%1st Place
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3.62University of Hawaii1.650.1%1st Place
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8.36University of California at San Diego-0.970.0%1st Place
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7.45California State University Monterey Bay-0.450.0%1st Place
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6.45University of California at Berkeley0.130.0%1st Place
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9.93University of California at Davis-2.030.0%1st Place
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8.47University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Godfrey | 18.0% | 25.4% | 22.7% | 16.7% | 10.2% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maeve White | 47.7% | 28.7% | 14.6% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kathryn Cornella | 3.8% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 15.9% | 16.1% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 0.8% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 4.6% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 14.3% | 17.6% | 15.9% | 13.2% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Sarah Wyman | 5.2% | 6.5% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 15.4% | 13.6% | 16.4% | 11.1% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Cecilia Jansson | 13.1% | 17.9% | 20.5% | 18.9% | 13.2% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Erika Poynter | 0.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 18.8% | 26.5% | 14.2% |
| Lauren Orloff | 2.7% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 16.3% | 16.1% | 16.4% | 6.8% |
| Kelly Goodman | 2.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 14.8% | 16.2% | 15.2% | 12.9% | 6.4% | 2.3% |
| Mary Garnich | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 9.0% | 16.2% | 59.5% |
| Ellen Suder | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 13.5% | 20.5% | 24.9% | 15.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.