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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Princeton University1.87+7.09vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.72+4.69vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.53+4.41vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+5.38vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.88+1.15vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59+1.13vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-1.57vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin1.36+0.01vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.44-1.26vs Predicted
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10Washington College1.66-2.83vs Predicted
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11Cornell University0.46+0.17vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.90-4.99vs Predicted
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13Cornell University0.36-1.52vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-3.60vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.54-4.22vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.26-4.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.09Princeton University1.876.2%1st Place
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6.69University of Pennsylvania1.729.1%1st Place
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7.41Fordham University1.537.6%1st Place
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9.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.973.8%1st Place
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6.15SUNY Maritime College1.8811.5%1st Place
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7.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.598.6%1st Place
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5.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1612.4%1st Place
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8.01University of Wisconsin1.366.0%1st Place
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7.74Cornell University1.447.2%1st Place
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7.17Washington College1.667.7%1st Place
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11.17Cornell University0.462.8%1st Place
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7.01Cornell University1.907.6%1st Place
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11.48Cornell University0.362.1%1st Place
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10.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.483.1%1st Place
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10.78University of Vermont0.542.4%1st Place
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11.95University of Michigan0.261.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Mraz | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Torrey Chisari | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Michael Burns | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% |
| Spencer Barnes | 11.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Will Murray | 12.4% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Reed Weston | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.2% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 14.6% | 16.1% |
| Lilly Myers | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 18.8% |
| Patrick Modin | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 10.8% |
| Luke Quine | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 14.5% |
| Isabel Dziuba | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 16.2% | 23.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.