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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.72+5.86vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.46vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+6.39vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48+6.70vs Predicted
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5Princeton University1.87+3.09vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59+1.18vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.53+0.29vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.88-1.84vs Predicted
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9Cornell University0.46+2.29vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.90-3.13vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin1.36-3.07vs Predicted
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12Washington College1.66-4.86vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.44-5.33vs Predicted
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14Cornell University0.36-2.42vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.54-4.40vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.26-4.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.86University of Pennsylvania1.728.8%1st Place
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5.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1612.2%1st Place
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9.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.974.3%1st Place
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10.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.483.4%1st Place
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8.09Princeton University1.876.0%1st Place
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7.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.598.1%1st Place
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7.29Fordham University1.538.0%1st Place
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6.16SUNY Maritime College1.8810.6%1st Place
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11.29Cornell University0.461.8%1st Place
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6.87Cornell University1.908.9%1st Place
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7.93University of Wisconsin1.366.2%1st Place
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7.14Washington College1.667.8%1st Place
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7.67Cornell University1.446.4%1st Place
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11.58Cornell University0.362.2%1st Place
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10.6University of Vermont0.543.0%1st Place
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11.81University of Michigan0.262.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Will Murray | 12.2% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 4.8% |
| Patrick Modin | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 12.6% |
| Connor Mraz | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Michael Burns | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 10.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Aidan Lane | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 16.2% |
| Lilly Myers | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Reed Weston | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 16.1% | 20.4% |
| Luke Quine | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 12.8% |
| Isabel Dziuba | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 22.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.