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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.06+1.98vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.92-0.08vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.13+3.57vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.38+2.07vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.58+0.50vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California0.78-0.86vs Predicted
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7California State University Monterey Bay-0.45+0.38vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine-1.02-0.49vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii1.65-6.34vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.97-2.62vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-2.03-2.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.98University of California at Santa Barbara2.060.2%1st Place
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1.92Stanford University2.920.5%1st Place
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6.57University of California at Berkeley0.130.0%1st Place
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6.07Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.380.0%1st Place
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5.5University of California at Los Angeles0.580.1%1st Place
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5.14University of Southern California0.780.1%1st Place
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7.38California State University Monterey Bay-0.450.0%1st Place
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8.51University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
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3.66University of Hawaii1.650.1%1st Place
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8.38University of California at San Diego-0.970.0%1st Place
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9.9University of California at Davis-2.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Godfrey | 18.0% | 24.9% | 23.5% | 18.1% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maeve White | 48.4% | 25.8% | 15.4% | 7.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Goodman | 3.1% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 16.7% | 17.4% | 13.7% | 6.9% | 2.1% |
| Kathryn Cornella | 2.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 16.7% | 15.9% | 14.3% | 9.1% | 5.0% | 1.0% |
| Sarah Wyman | 5.4% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 15.9% | 16.3% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 6.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 5.4% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 16.6% | 16.5% | 13.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Orloff | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 13.8% | 17.1% | 18.1% | 14.3% | 6.1% |
| Ellen Suder | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 17.9% | 25.3% | 17.7% |
| Cecilia Jansson | 12.4% | 17.9% | 20.3% | 19.4% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Erika Poynter | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 19.4% | 26.1% | 14.7% |
| Mary Garnich | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 18.2% | 57.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.