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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Princeton University1.87+6.84vs Predicted
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2Washington College1.66+4.92vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+2.29vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.53+3.12vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin1.36+2.68vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.88+0.07vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.72-0.25vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.90-1.17vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.44-1.35vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-0.81vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan-1.08+3.56vs Predicted
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12Cornell University0.46-1.00vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59-6.03vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.54-3.46vs Predicted
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15Cornell University0.36-3.74vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-5.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.84Princeton University1.875.9%1st Place
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6.92Washington College1.667.9%1st Place
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5.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1614.3%1st Place
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7.12Fordham University1.538.1%1st Place
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7.68University of Wisconsin1.366.0%1st Place
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6.07SUNY Maritime College1.889.6%1st Place
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6.75University of Pennsylvania1.728.6%1st Place
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6.83Cornell University1.908.0%1st Place
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7.65Cornell University1.446.6%1st Place
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9.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.974.9%1st Place
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14.56University of Michigan-1.080.9%1st Place
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11.0Cornell University0.462.5%1st Place
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6.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.598.2%1st Place
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10.54University of Vermont0.543.0%1st Place
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11.26Cornell University0.362.3%1st Place
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10.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.483.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Mraz | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 0.5% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Will Murray | 14.3% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Michael Burns | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Reed Weston | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Spencer Barnes | 9.6% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Torrey Chisari | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Lilly Myers | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 1.8% |
| Anna Brieden | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 12.3% | 64.8% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 13.5% | 15.8% | 8.5% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Luke Quine | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 6.2% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 19.9% | 9.2% |
| Patrick Modin | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 5.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.