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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.88+4.96vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.25vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59+4.01vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.53+3.27vs Predicted
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5Washington College1.66+2.19vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.90+0.76vs Predicted
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7Cornell University0.36+4.33vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.72-1.30vs Predicted
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9Princeton University1.87-1.13vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.44-2.55vs Predicted
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11Cornell University0.46-0.16vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.36-4.19vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.54-2.45vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-3.62vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan-1.08-0.47vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-6.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.96SUNY Maritime College1.8811.6%1st Place
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5.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1613.2%1st Place
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7.01Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.598.7%1st Place
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7.27Fordham University1.538.0%1st Place
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7.19Washington College1.666.9%1st Place
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6.76Cornell University1.908.1%1st Place
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11.33Cornell University0.362.1%1st Place
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6.7University of Pennsylvania1.728.3%1st Place
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7.87Princeton University1.876.0%1st Place
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7.45Cornell University1.446.8%1st Place
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10.84Cornell University0.462.6%1st Place
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7.81University of Wisconsin1.366.8%1st Place
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10.55University of Vermont0.543.1%1st Place
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10.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.482.9%1st Place
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14.53University of Michigan-1.080.3%1st Place
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9.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.974.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 11.6% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 13.2% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Michael Burns | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Lilly Myers | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 19.1% | 9.8% |
| Torrey Chisari | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 16.1% | 7.7% |
| Reed Weston | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Luke Quine | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 16.1% | 5.7% |
| Patrick Modin | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 6.0% |
| Anna Brieden | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 11.7% | 64.1% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.