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📊 Prediction Accuracy
81.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.06+0.80vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.06+0.94vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.78+1.28vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii1.59-1.21vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.58-0.45vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.38-1.05vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.13-1.71vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.97-0.58vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay-0.45-2.38vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-2.03-1.09vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-1.02-3.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.8Stanford University3.060.5%1st Place
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2.94University of California at Santa Barbara2.060.2%1st Place
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5.28University of Southern California0.780.1%1st Place
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3.79University of Hawaii1.590.1%1st Place
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5.55University of California at Los Angeles0.580.0%1st Place
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5.95Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.380.0%1st Place
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6.29University of California at Berkeley0.130.0%1st Place
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8.42University of California at San Diego-0.970.0%1st Place
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7.62California State University Monterey Bay-0.450.0%1st Place
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9.91University of California at Davis-2.030.0%1st Place
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8.45University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuki Yoshiyasu | 50.8% | 28.5% | 13.7% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Godfrey | 18.9% | 26.2% | 23.1% | 16.0% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 5.4% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 14.6% | 16.0% | 15.5% | 14.6% | 9.5% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Louise Currie | 10.4% | 16.2% | 20.3% | 19.1% | 17.2% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Wyman | 4.6% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 15.1% | 14.7% | 11.5% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| Kathryn Cornella | 3.0% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 15.6% | 15.2% | 13.3% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 0.9% |
| Kelly Goodman | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 14.7% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 6.7% | 1.3% |
| Erika Poynter | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 14.6% | 16.8% | 24.4% | 16.7% |
| Lauren Orloff | 1.3% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 18.0% | 18.1% | 16.5% | 7.7% |
| Mary Garnich | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 10.1% | 17.2% | 57.5% |
| Ellen Suder | 0.8% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 20.0% | 24.7% | 15.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.