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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.72+5.58vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.53+5.22vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+2.34vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59+3.05vs Predicted
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5Washington College1.66+1.97vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin1.36+1.79vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College1.88-0.95vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.90-1.22vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.44-1.49vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-0.69vs Predicted
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11Princeton University1.87-3.12vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-1.65vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.54-2.61vs Predicted
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14Cornell University0.46-3.03vs Predicted
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15Cornell University0.36-3.80vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-1.08-1.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.58University of Pennsylvania1.728.3%1st Place
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7.22Fordham University1.537.8%1st Place
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5.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1613.3%1st Place
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7.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.597.9%1st Place
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6.97Washington College1.668.6%1st Place
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7.79University of Wisconsin1.365.7%1st Place
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6.05SUNY Maritime College1.889.8%1st Place
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6.78Cornell University1.909.5%1st Place
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7.51Cornell University1.447.2%1st Place
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9.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.973.8%1st Place
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7.88Princeton University1.876.5%1st Place
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10.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.483.5%1st Place
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10.39University of Vermont0.542.5%1st Place
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10.97Cornell University0.462.6%1st Place
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11.2Cornell University0.362.5%1st Place
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14.59University of Michigan-1.080.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Michael Burns | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Will Murray | 13.3% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Reed Weston | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Spencer Barnes | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Lilly Myers | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 3.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Patrick Modin | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 5.3% |
| Luke Quine | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 14.0% | 5.8% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 17.3% | 8.6% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 14.0% | 18.1% | 9.0% |
| Anna Brieden | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 11.2% | 64.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.