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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.90+5.84vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59+5.35vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.72+3.86vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+5.27vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+0.42vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.54+4.83vs Predicted
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7Cornell University0.36+4.73vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin1.36-0.03vs Predicted
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9Princeton University1.87-1.04vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.88-3.92vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.53-3.59vs Predicted
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12Cornell University0.46-0.71vs Predicted
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13Washington College1.66-5.70vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.44-6.38vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-4.62vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.26-4.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.84Cornell University1.9010.1%1st Place
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7.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.597.4%1st Place
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6.86University of Pennsylvania1.727.6%1st Place
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9.27Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.974.5%1st Place
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5.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1612.7%1st Place
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10.83University of Vermont0.542.5%1st Place
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11.73Cornell University0.361.9%1st Place
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7.97University of Wisconsin1.366.1%1st Place
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7.96Princeton University1.876.3%1st Place
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6.08SUNY Maritime College1.8811.7%1st Place
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7.41Fordham University1.537.4%1st Place
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11.29Cornell University0.462.5%1st Place
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7.3Washington College1.667.2%1st Place
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7.62Cornell University1.446.9%1st Place
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10.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.483.3%1st Place
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11.71University of Michigan0.261.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilly Myers | 10.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Torrey Chisari | 7.6% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 5.9% |
| Will Murray | 12.7% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Luke Quine | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 12.7% |
| Ben Rizika | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 15.3% | 21.7% |
| Reed Weston | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.8% |
| Connor Mraz | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 11.7% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Michael Burns | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 17.2% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| Patrick Modin | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 9.8% |
| Isabel Dziuba | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 14.1% | 21.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.