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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.90+5.96vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59+5.04vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin1.36+5.00vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.72+2.90vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.54+5.98vs Predicted
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6Cornell University0.46+5.29vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-1.50vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.44-0.28vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.53-1.65vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.88-4.04vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-1.71vs Predicted
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12Washington College1.66-4.93vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.48-2.33vs Predicted
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14Cornell University0.36-2.62vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan0.26-3.23vs Predicted
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16Princeton University1.87-7.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.96Cornell University1.908.2%1st Place
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7.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.598.3%1st Place
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8.0University of Wisconsin1.366.4%1st Place
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6.9University of Pennsylvania1.728.4%1st Place
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10.98University of Vermont0.542.4%1st Place
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11.29Cornell University0.462.4%1st Place
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5.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1613.9%1st Place
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7.72Cornell University1.447.3%1st Place
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7.35Fordham University1.537.4%1st Place
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5.96SUNY Maritime College1.8811.5%1st Place
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9.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.975.0%1st Place
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7.07Washington College1.667.1%1st Place
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10.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.481.9%1st Place
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11.38Cornell University0.362.4%1st Place
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11.77University of Michigan0.261.8%1st Place
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8.12Princeton University1.875.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilly Myers | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 8.3% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Reed Weston | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% |
| Torrey Chisari | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Luke Quine | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 13.6% | 13.1% |
| Aidan Lane | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 13.8% | 17.7% |
| Will Murray | 13.9% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Lauren Ehnot | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| Michael Burns | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 11.5% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Heather Kerns | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.1% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Patrick Modin | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 11.3% |
| Ben Rizika | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 20.0% |
| Isabel Dziuba | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 15.8% | 21.9% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.