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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University0.82+7.05vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania0.71+6.27vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+2.96vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+3.70vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.81-0.24vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College0.63+2.65vs Predicted
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7Cornell University0.97+0.39vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.68-2.95vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin0.16+1.03vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.76-5.15vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.96-3.58vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.32-0.71vs Predicted
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13Washington College-0.31-1.44vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont-1.92+0.88vs Predicted
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15Cornell University0.47-5.80vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-0.01-5.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.05Cornell University0.825.0%1st Place
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8.27University of Pennsylvania0.714.8%1st Place
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5.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.4110.0%1st Place
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7.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.915.5%1st Place
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4.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.8114.0%1st Place
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8.65SUNY Maritime College0.635.1%1st Place
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7.39Cornell University0.976.2%1st Place
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5.05Cornell University1.6813.0%1st Place
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10.03University of Wisconsin0.163.4%1st Place
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4.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.7615.4%1st Place
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7.42U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.967.8%1st Place
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11.29Princeton University-0.322.2%1st Place
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11.56Washington College-0.311.9%1st Place
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14.88University of Vermont-1.920.3%1st Place
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9.2Cornell University0.473.2%1st Place
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10.93University of Michigan-0.012.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Rizika | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Ella Marsden | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| William Weinbecker | 10.0% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Richard Gleason | 14.0% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Gannon Troutman | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| J.J. Smith | 13.0% | 14.0% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Davis | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 2.9% |
| Will Foox | 15.4% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dax Thompson | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 18.1% | 7.7% |
| Max Shapiro | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 21.6% | 8.9% |
| Liam Harkins | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 9.6% | 71.2% |
| Jack Merrill | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 1.6% |
| Samuel Stephens | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 16.7% | 5.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.