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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+4.91vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.81+2.62vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College0.63+5.77vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania0.71+4.42vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.76-0.16vs Predicted
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6Cornell University0.97+1.33vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.68-1.97vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin0.16+2.03vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan-0.01+1.92vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.82-2.01vs Predicted
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11Cornell University0.47-1.85vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.96-4.65vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.32-1.56vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-6.54vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-1.920.00vs Predicted
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16Washington College-0.31-4.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.91U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.419.9%1st Place
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4.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.8115.3%1st Place
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8.77SUNY Maritime College0.634.3%1st Place
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8.42University of Pennsylvania0.714.0%1st Place
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4.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.7614.1%1st Place
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7.33Cornell University0.976.8%1st Place
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5.03Cornell University1.6814.7%1st Place
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10.03University of Wisconsin0.162.9%1st Place
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10.92University of Michigan-0.012.6%1st Place
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7.99Cornell University0.825.5%1st Place
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9.15Cornell University0.473.2%1st Place
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7.35U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.966.7%1st Place
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11.44Princeton University-0.321.8%1st Place
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7.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.916.7%1st Place
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15.0University of Vermont-1.920.1%1st Place
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11.75Washington College-0.311.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Weinbecker | 9.9% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Richard Gleason | 15.3% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gannon Troutman | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 0.9% |
| Ella Marsden | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Will Foox | 14.1% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 14.7% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Davis | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 3.2% |
| Samuel Stephens | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 14.6% | 15.6% | 4.9% |
| Seth Rizika | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Jack Merrill | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 1.5% |
| Dax Thompson | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 15.6% | 19.6% | 6.9% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Liam Harkins | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 9.5% | 72.2% |
| Max Shapiro | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 14.0% | 23.1% | 8.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.