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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College0.63+7.60vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+3.88vs Predicted
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3Washington College-0.31+8.70vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.81+0.80vs Predicted
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5Cornell University0.82+3.01vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.76-1.27vs Predicted
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7Cornell University0.97+0.40vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-0.21vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont-1.92+5.97vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.68-4.99vs Predicted
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11Cornell University0.47-1.95vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.96-4.62vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin0.16-2.78vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania0.71-5.94vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan-0.01-4.06vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.32-4.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.6SUNY Maritime College0.634.7%1st Place
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5.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.4110.3%1st Place
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11.7Washington College-0.311.8%1st Place
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4.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.8115.6%1st Place
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8.01Cornell University0.825.5%1st Place
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4.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.7614.4%1st Place
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7.4Cornell University0.976.2%1st Place
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7.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.915.8%1st Place
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14.97University of Vermont-1.920.3%1st Place
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5.01Cornell University1.6813.4%1st Place
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9.05Cornell University0.474.2%1st Place
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7.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.966.6%1st Place
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10.22University of Wisconsin0.162.9%1st Place
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8.06University of Pennsylvania0.715.1%1st Place
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10.94University of Michigan-0.011.8%1st Place
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11.46Princeton University-0.321.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gannon Troutman | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| William Weinbecker | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Max Shapiro | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 22.9% | 8.2% |
| Richard Gleason | 15.6% | 13.4% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seth Rizika | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Will Foox | 14.4% | 15.2% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Liam Harkins | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 11.2% | 70.5% |
| J.J. Smith | 13.4% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Merrill | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 1.8% |
| Dax Thompson | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| William Davis | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% |
| Ella Marsden | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Samuel Stephens | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 14.9% | 5.1% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 15.6% | 18.7% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.