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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+4.96vs Predicted
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2Cornell University0.97+5.31vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College0.63+5.54vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.68+0.96vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.76-0.02vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.81-1.30vs Predicted
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7Cornell University0.47+2.02vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin0.16+2.14vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.96-1.60vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.82-1.89vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-3.34vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania0.71-3.57vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.32-1.42vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan-0.01-3.27vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-1.92-0.02vs Predicted
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16Washington College-0.31-4.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.4110.0%1st Place
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7.31Cornell University0.976.2%1st Place
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8.54SUNY Maritime College0.634.8%1st Place
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4.96Cornell University1.6812.7%1st Place
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4.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.7613.5%1st Place
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4.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.8115.6%1st Place
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9.02Cornell University0.474.4%1st Place
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10.14University of Wisconsin0.162.9%1st Place
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7.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.966.6%1st Place
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8.11Cornell University0.825.8%1st Place
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7.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.915.7%1st Place
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8.43University of Pennsylvania0.715.0%1st Place
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11.58Princeton University-0.321.9%1st Place
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10.73University of Michigan-0.012.9%1st Place
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14.98University of Vermont-1.920.3%1st Place
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11.5Washington College-0.311.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Weinbecker | 10.0% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Gannon Troutman | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 0.9% |
| J.J. Smith | 12.7% | 15.1% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Foox | 13.5% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Richard Gleason | 15.6% | 14.3% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Jack Merrill | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| William Davis | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 2.9% |
| Dax Thompson | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Seth Rizika | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Ella Marsden | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 14.9% | 22.4% | 7.5% |
| Samuel Stephens | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 14.9% | 5.0% |
| Liam Harkins | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 10.4% | 71.8% |
| Max Shapiro | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 13.5% | 20.3% | 7.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.