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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+4.95vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.81+2.71vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin0.16+7.16vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.76+0.95vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College0.63+3.74vs Predicted
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6Cornell University0.82+2.09vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania0.71+1.14vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.96-0.47vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-1.42vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.68-4.96vs Predicted
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11Cornell University0.47-1.93vs Predicted
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12Cornell University0.97-4.61vs Predicted
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13Washington College-0.31-1.29vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.32-2.58vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan-0.01-4.38vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont-1.92-1.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.95U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.4110.0%1st Place
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4.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.8115.0%1st Place
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10.16University of Wisconsin0.163.9%1st Place
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4.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.7614.3%1st Place
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8.74SUNY Maritime College0.633.7%1st Place
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8.09Cornell University0.824.8%1st Place
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8.14University of Pennsylvania0.715.4%1st Place
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7.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.966.2%1st Place
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7.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.917.2%1st Place
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5.04Cornell University1.6812.8%1st Place
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9.07Cornell University0.474.3%1st Place
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7.39Cornell University0.976.8%1st Place
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11.71Washington College-0.311.6%1st Place
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11.42Princeton University-0.321.6%1st Place
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10.62University of Michigan-0.011.8%1st Place
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14.9University of Vermont-1.920.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Weinbecker | 10.0% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Richard Gleason | 15.0% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Davis | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 2.8% |
| Will Foox | 14.3% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Gannon Troutman | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 1.0% |
| Seth Rizika | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Ella Marsden | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 0.8% |
| Dax Thompson | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| J.J. Smith | 12.8% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Merrill | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 1.2% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Max Shapiro | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 14.1% | 21.3% | 9.4% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 14.9% | 19.2% | 8.1% |
| Samuel Stephens | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 14.8% | 4.1% |
| Liam Harkins | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 10.0% | 70.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.