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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Wisconsin0.16+9.27vs Predicted
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2Cornell University0.97+5.42vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91+4.51vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.96+3.50vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.68-0.06vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania0.71+2.27vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-1.03vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.81-3.36vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.76-4.11vs Predicted
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10Cornell University0.82-2.02vs Predicted
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11Washington College-0.31+0.61vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.63-3.28vs Predicted
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13Cornell University0.47-3.88vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.32-2.57vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan-0.01-4.18vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont-1.92-1.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.27University of Wisconsin0.162.2%1st Place
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7.42Cornell University0.975.7%1st Place
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7.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.915.9%1st Place
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7.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.965.9%1st Place
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4.94Cornell University1.6814.4%1st Place
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8.27University of Pennsylvania0.715.3%1st Place
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5.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.419.1%1st Place
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4.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.8116.2%1st Place
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4.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.7614.5%1st Place
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7.98Cornell University0.825.3%1st Place
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11.61Washington College-0.312.1%1st Place
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8.72SUNY Maritime College0.634.7%1st Place
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9.12Cornell University0.474.0%1st Place
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11.43Princeton University-0.321.9%1st Place
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10.82University of Michigan-0.012.5%1st Place
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14.92University of Vermont-1.920.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Davis | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 3.4% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Dax Thompson | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 14.4% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ella Marsden | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 0.5% |
| William Weinbecker | 9.1% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Richard Gleason | 16.2% | 14.6% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Foox | 14.5% | 12.2% | 13.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Seth Rizika | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Max Shapiro | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 14.5% | 21.0% | 8.3% |
| Gannon Troutman | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Jack Merrill | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 1.2% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 20.4% | 7.3% |
| Samuel Stephens | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 14.1% | 15.1% | 4.7% |
| Liam Harkins | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 10.0% | 72.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.