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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41+4.76vs Predicted
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2Princeton University-0.32+9.28vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.81+1.69vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.96+3.32vs Predicted
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5University of Michigan-0.01+5.67vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.45-0.33vs Predicted
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7Cornell University0.97+0.20vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.63+0.66vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.76-4.07vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.68-4.88vs Predicted
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11Cornell University0.82-3.07vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin0.16-2.06vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont-1.92+1.78vs Predicted
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14Washington College-0.31-2.68vs Predicted
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15Cornell University0.47-5.97vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.42-4.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.419.7%1st Place
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11.28Princeton University-0.321.7%1st Place
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4.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.8114.6%1st Place
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7.32U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.966.2%1st Place
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10.67University of Michigan-0.012.6%1st Place
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5.67University of Pennsylvania1.4510.1%1st Place
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7.2Cornell University0.977.7%1st Place
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8.66SUNY Maritime College0.634.2%1st Place
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4.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.7615.7%1st Place
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5.12Cornell University1.6811.8%1st Place
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7.93Cornell University0.825.9%1st Place
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9.94University of Wisconsin0.163.1%1st Place
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14.78University of Vermont-1.920.5%1st Place
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11.32Washington College-0.311.7%1st Place
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9.03Cornell University0.473.1%1st Place
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11.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.421.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Weinbecker | 9.7% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 16.7% | 6.3% |
| Richard Gleason | 14.6% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dax Thompson | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Stephens | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 4.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 10.1% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Gannon Troutman | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Will Foox | 15.7% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 11.8% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Seth Rizika | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| William Davis | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 2.7% |
| Liam Harkins | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 10.2% | 69.0% |
| Max Shapiro | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 14.6% | 17.8% | 7.0% |
| Jack Merrill | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 0.9% |
| Payton Kliesch | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 14.4% | 20.2% | 8.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.