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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.76+3.91vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College0.63+6.71vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin0.16+7.03vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.96+3.41vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.68-0.15vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.81-1.24vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.42+4.52vs Predicted
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8Cornell University0.97-0.67vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-0.32+2.27vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.41-4.15vs Predicted
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11Cornell University0.47-1.96vs Predicted
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12Washington College-0.31-0.46vs Predicted
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13Cornell University0.82-5.26vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.45-8.31vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-1.92-0.19vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-0.01-5.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.7612.8%1st Place
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8.71SUNY Maritime College0.634.3%1st Place
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10.03University of Wisconsin0.163.0%1st Place
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7.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.966.7%1st Place
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4.85Cornell University1.6814.4%1st Place
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4.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.8114.3%1st Place
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11.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges-0.421.5%1st Place
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7.33Cornell University0.975.8%1st Place
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11.27Princeton University-0.322.1%1st Place
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5.85U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.419.8%1st Place
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9.04Cornell University0.473.5%1st Place
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11.54Washington College-0.312.1%1st Place
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7.74Cornell University0.825.5%1st Place
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5.69University of Pennsylvania1.4511.1%1st Place
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14.81University of Vermont-1.920.4%1st Place
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10.55University of Michigan-0.012.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Foox | 12.8% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Gannon Troutman | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| William Davis | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 2.2% |
| Dax Thompson | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 14.4% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Richard Gleason | 14.3% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Payton Kliesch | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 10.5% | 15.4% | 18.4% | 8.8% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 14.7% | 16.4% | 6.3% |
| William Weinbecker | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Merrill | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 1.1% |
| Max Shapiro | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 19.4% | 7.2% |
| Seth Rizika | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Madeleine Rice | 11.1% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Liam Harkins | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 67.8% |
| Samuel Stephens | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 4.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.