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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.72+2.35vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.41+1.96vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.86+5.45vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University1.47+2.88vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+0.79vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.71+0.24vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.42+3.16vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.67-1.98vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.99-0.80vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+1.37vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands0.82-2.46vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-0.86+1.82vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz1.69-7.40vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-0.91-0.39vs Predicted
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15Santa Clara University-0.59-2.36vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-1.09-2.25vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-1.41-2.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.35Stanford University2.7225.4%1st Place
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3.96University of Hawaii2.4116.7%1st Place
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8.45University of California at Berkeley0.864.2%1st Place
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6.88San Diego State University1.476.6%1st Place
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5.79California Poly Maritime Academy1.928.8%1st Place
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6.24University of Southern California1.717.3%1st Place
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10.16University of California at San Diego0.421.5%1st Place
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6.02University of California at Santa Barbara1.679.0%1st Place
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8.2Arizona State University0.994.3%1st Place
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11.37Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.271.2%1st Place
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8.54California State University Channel Islands0.822.9%1st Place
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13.82San Diego State University-0.860.4%1st Place
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5.6University of California at Santa Cruz1.6910.2%1st Place
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13.61San Diego State University-0.910.3%1st Place
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12.64Santa Clara University-0.590.9%1st Place
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13.75Arizona State University-1.090.4%1st Place
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14.62Arizona State University-1.410.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Woodworth | 25.4% | 19.2% | 15.2% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 16.7% | 17.7% | 16.1% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carsten Zieger | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Aston Smith | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Henry Boeger | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Casal | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 2.8% |
| Sterling Maggard | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Marley Daniel | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 15.0% | 20.2% | 18.6% |
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 10.2% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Alcala | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 16.2% | 18.4% | 16.7% |
| Paul Trudell | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 11.4% | 15.1% | 15.9% | 12.3% | 8.8% |
| Camden Wacha | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 16.9% | 18.0% | 18.9% |
| Patrick Gardiner | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 19.1% | 33.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.