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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1San Diego State University1.47+5.87vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+4.00vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+2.96vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.71+2.37vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.41-1.15vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University0.99+2.11vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+4.34vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.72-4.62vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz1.69-3.42vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands0.82-1.46vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego0.42-0.87vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.86-3.57vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-1.09+0.94vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-0.91-0.56vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-0.86-1.19vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-1.41-1.43vs Predicted
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17Santa Clara University-0.59-4.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.87San Diego State University1.476.9%1st Place
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6.0California Poly Maritime Academy1.927.6%1st Place
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5.96University of California at Santa Barbara1.678.8%1st Place
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6.37University of Southern California1.716.8%1st Place
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3.85University of Hawaii2.4119.4%1st Place
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8.11Arizona State University0.994.5%1st Place
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11.34Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.271.7%1st Place
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3.38Stanford University2.7223.8%1st Place
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5.58University of California at Santa Cruz1.699.2%1st Place
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8.54California State University Channel Islands0.823.5%1st Place
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10.13University of California at San Diego0.421.5%1st Place
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8.43University of California at Berkeley0.863.9%1st Place
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13.94Arizona State University-1.090.2%1st Place
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13.44San Diego State University-0.910.8%1st Place
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13.81San Diego State University-0.860.4%1st Place
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14.57Arizona State University-1.410.2%1st Place
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12.68Santa Clara University-0.590.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Smith | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 7.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Boeger | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 19.4% | 16.4% | 16.1% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Casal | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 2.9% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 23.8% | 19.2% | 16.6% | 13.5% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 9.2% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Carsten Zieger | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Camden Wacha | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 15.0% | 19.4% | 22.0% |
| Juan Alcala | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 15.6% | 18.2% | 14.5% |
| Marley Daniel | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 17.8% | 18.6% | 18.6% |
| Patrick Gardiner | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 14.4% | 18.6% | 33.1% |
| Paul Trudell | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 15.2% | 15.2% | 13.2% | 7.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.