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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.45+4.73vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.31+3.50vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.24+6.20vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.55+1.30vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College1.95+2.32vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.03+1.58vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College1.58+1.90vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.55-2.75vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.31+1.43vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University1.21+0.09vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College1.95-3.89vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.77-4.82vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.69-3.09vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.55-2.10vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.57-6.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.73Roger Williams University2.4511.3%1st Place
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5.5Harvard University2.3112.5%1st Place
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9.2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.244.2%1st Place
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5.3Stanford University2.5512.3%1st Place
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7.32Dartmouth College1.956.7%1st Place
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7.58Tufts University2.036.1%1st Place
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8.9Bowdoin College1.584.5%1st Place
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5.25Yale University2.5513.1%1st Place
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10.43University of Vermont1.312.5%1st Place
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10.09Salve Regina University1.212.9%1st Place
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7.11Connecticut College1.957.2%1st Place
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7.18University of Rhode Island1.777.5%1st Place
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9.91Northeastern University1.692.8%1st Place
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11.9Northwestern University0.551.7%1st Place
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8.59Old Dominion University1.574.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Hoogland | 11.3% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Henry Burnes | 12.5% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Alex Abate | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 7.5% |
| Wiley Rogers | 12.3% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Alex Fasolo | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
| Perham Black | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% |
| Emma Cowles | 13.1% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Grace Gear | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 13.6% | 16.0% |
| Peter Cronin | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 14.0% |
| Walter Henry | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Parker Colantuono | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 10.5% |
| Marina Hutzler | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 15.6% | 33.7% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.