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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College1.58+7.83vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.03+5.52vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.55+2.14vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.31+1.57vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College1.95+2.04vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College1.95+1.62vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.24+2.25vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.45-2.21vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.55-3.78vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.77-2.70vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University1.21-0.90vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.31-1.66vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.57-4.51vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.69-4.06vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University0.55-3.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.83Bowdoin College1.584.6%1st Place
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7.52Tufts University2.036.6%1st Place
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5.14Yale University2.5514.4%1st Place
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5.57Harvard University2.3111.9%1st Place
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7.04Connecticut College1.957.4%1st Place
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7.62Dartmouth College1.956.6%1st Place
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9.25Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.242.9%1st Place
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5.79Roger Williams University2.4511.1%1st Place
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5.22Stanford University2.5513.4%1st Place
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7.3University of Rhode Island1.776.6%1st Place
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10.1Salve Regina University1.213.4%1st Place
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10.34University of Vermont1.312.3%1st Place
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8.49Old Dominion University1.574.5%1st Place
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9.94Northeastern University1.693.1%1st Place
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11.86Northwestern University0.551.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perham Black | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% |
| Alex Fasolo | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Emma Cowles | 14.4% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Henry Burnes | 11.9% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Walter Henry | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
| Alex Abate | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.4% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Wiley Rogers | 13.4% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Parker Colantuono | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Peter Cronin | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 12.5% |
| Grace Gear | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 14.5% | 17.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 4.3% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 11.3% |
| Marina Hutzler | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 11.3% | 15.3% | 32.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.