← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Stanford University2.72+2.40vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+4.11vs Predicted
-
3University of Southern California1.71+3.09vs Predicted
-
4University of Hawaii2.41-0.01vs Predicted
-
5San Diego State University1.47+1.91vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Santa Cruz1.69-0.40vs Predicted
-
7California State University Channel Islands0.82+1.59vs Predicted
-
8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+3.48vs Predicted
-
9California Poly Maritime Academy1.92-3.08vs Predicted
-
10Arizona State University0.99-1.83vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Berkeley0.86-2.52vs Predicted
-
12University of California at San Diego0.42-1.89vs Predicted
-
13Santa Clara University-0.59-0.40vs Predicted
-
14Arizona State University-1.09-0.18vs Predicted
-
15San Diego State University-0.86-1.35vs Predicted
-
16San Diego State University-0.91-2.57vs Predicted
-
17Arizona State University-1.41-2.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.4Stanford University2.7223.9%1st Place
-
6.11University of California at Santa Barbara1.678.6%1st Place
-
6.09University of Southern California1.719.1%1st Place
-
3.99University of Hawaii2.4116.9%1st Place
-
6.91San Diego State University1.476.3%1st Place
-
5.6University of California at Santa Cruz1.699.3%1st Place
-
8.59California State University Channel Islands0.823.5%1st Place
-
11.48Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.271.3%1st Place
-
5.92California Poly Maritime Academy1.928.5%1st Place
-
8.17Arizona State University0.993.7%1st Place
-
8.48University of California at Berkeley0.863.5%1st Place
-
10.11University of California at San Diego0.421.8%1st Place
-
12.6Santa Clara University-0.591.1%1st Place
-
13.82Arizona State University-1.090.7%1st Place
-
13.65San Diego State University-0.860.7%1st Place
-
13.43San Diego State University-0.910.7%1st Place
-
14.64Arizona State University-1.410.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Woodworth | 23.9% | 20.2% | 14.9% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Boeger | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 9.1% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 16.9% | 17.9% | 14.7% | 14.4% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 9.3% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 13.9% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 7.3% | 2.7% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Juan Casal | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Carsten Zieger | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Paul Trudell | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 14.4% | 14.8% | 12.6% | 9.2% |
| Camden Wacha | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 16.3% | 18.8% | 20.0% |
| Marley Daniel | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 16.4% | 17.9% | 17.8% |
| Juan Alcala | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 15.8% | 18.2% | 15.2% |
| Patrick Gardiner | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 19.8% | 34.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.