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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.45+4.88vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.55+3.33vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.03+4.44vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.24+5.15vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.77+2.37vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College1.95+1.53vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.31-1.40vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College1.58+0.79vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.57-0.48vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.55-4.77vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College1.95-3.77vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.69-2.25vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.31-2.70vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.55-2.27vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University1.21-4.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.88Roger Williams University2.4510.4%1st Place
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5.33Stanford University2.5512.6%1st Place
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7.44Tufts University2.037.0%1st Place
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9.15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.243.6%1st Place
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7.37University of Rhode Island1.777.2%1st Place
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7.53Dartmouth College1.956.2%1st Place
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5.6Harvard University2.3111.5%1st Place
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8.79Bowdoin College1.585.4%1st Place
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8.52Old Dominion University1.575.2%1st Place
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5.23Yale University2.5513.7%1st Place
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7.23Connecticut College1.957.0%1st Place
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9.75Northeastern University1.693.2%1st Place
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10.3University of Vermont1.312.5%1st Place
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11.73Northwestern University0.551.8%1st Place
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10.16Salve Regina University1.212.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Hoogland | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Wiley Rogers | 12.6% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Alex Fasolo | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Alex Abate | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.4% |
| Parker Colantuono | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.1% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Henry Burnes | 11.5% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Perham Black | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 5.9% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 4.8% |
| Emma Cowles | 13.7% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Walter Henry | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 11.4% |
| Grace Gear | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 14.1% | 14.9% |
| Marina Hutzler | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 14.4% | 33.6% |
| Peter Cronin | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 13.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.