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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.55+4.19vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.03+5.40vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College1.95+4.43vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College1.95+3.06vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.24+4.36vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.69+4.04vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.31-1.40vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.55-2.79vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.57-0.47vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University0.55+1.67vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.77-3.68vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.31-1.68vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University1.21-2.89vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.45-8.24vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College1.58-5.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.19Stanford University2.5511.7%1st Place
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7.4Tufts University2.037.1%1st Place
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7.43Dartmouth College1.956.3%1st Place
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7.06Connecticut College1.957.1%1st Place
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9.36Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.244.5%1st Place
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10.04Northeastern University1.693.2%1st Place
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5.6Harvard University2.3112.5%1st Place
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5.21Yale University2.5512.6%1st Place
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8.53Old Dominion University1.574.9%1st Place
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11.67Northwestern University0.551.8%1st Place
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7.32University of Rhode Island1.776.3%1st Place
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10.32University of Vermont1.313.5%1st Place
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10.11Salve Regina University1.213.0%1st Place
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5.76Roger Williams University2.4511.7%1st Place
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9.02Bowdoin College1.583.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wiley Rogers | 11.7% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Alex Fasolo | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% |
| Walter Henry | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Alex Abate | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 7.8% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 12.6% |
| Henry Burnes | 12.5% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Emma Cowles | 12.6% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 4.3% |
| Marina Hutzler | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 14.4% | 31.9% |
| Parker Colantuono | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Grace Gear | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 15.0% |
| Peter Cronin | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 13.5% | 13.6% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 11.7% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Perham Black | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 5.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.