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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.72+2.23vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+4.11vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.86+5.42vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.71+2.35vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.41-1.16vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University1.47+0.92vs Predicted
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7California Poly Maritime Academy1.92-1.16vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz1.69-2.47vs Predicted
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9California State University Channel Islands0.82-0.38vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University-0.86+3.70vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University0.99-2.77vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-0.64vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-1.09+1.01vs Predicted
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14Santa Clara University-0.59-1.37vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego0.42-4.87vs Predicted
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16San Diego State University-0.91-2.57vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-1.41-2.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.23Stanford University2.7225.6%1st Place
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6.11University of California at Santa Barbara1.677.3%1st Place
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8.42University of California at Berkeley0.863.5%1st Place
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6.35University of Southern California1.717.7%1st Place
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3.84University of Hawaii2.4118.1%1st Place
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6.92San Diego State University1.475.9%1st Place
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5.84California Poly Maritime Academy1.928.6%1st Place
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5.53University of California at Santa Cruz1.699.7%1st Place
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8.62California State University Channel Islands0.824.0%1st Place
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13.7San Diego State University-0.860.4%1st Place
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8.23Arizona State University0.993.8%1st Place
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11.36Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.271.2%1st Place
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14.01Arizona State University-1.090.5%1st Place
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12.63Santa Clara University-0.590.9%1st Place
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10.13University of California at San Diego0.421.8%1st Place
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13.43San Diego State University-0.910.8%1st Place
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14.66Arizona State University-1.410.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Woodworth | 25.6% | 20.0% | 17.9% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Boeger | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carsten Zieger | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 7.7% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 18.1% | 17.6% | 16.2% | 13.7% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Marley Daniel | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 15.7% | 18.9% | 18.2% |
| Juan Casal | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 7.1% | 2.3% |
| Camden Wacha | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 12.5% | 16.4% | 18.6% | 21.8% |
| Paul Trudell | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 15.9% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 7.2% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Juan Alcala | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 14.3% | 15.2% | 17.6% | 15.3% |
| Patrick Gardiner | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 14.9% | 18.7% | 33.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.