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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.38+4.87vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.08+5.50vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+4.27vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.12+2.93vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.59+3.27vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.53+3.33vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.59+1.51vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.05-3.98vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.06-2.16vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.71-2.15vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University0.45+1.02vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.72-0.66vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.92-5.46vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.90-6.58vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University1.31-5.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.87Dartmouth College2.388.9%1st Place
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7.5Stanford University2.087.4%1st Place
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7.27Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.936.2%1st Place
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6.93Tufts University2.127.8%1st Place
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8.27University of Rhode Island1.595.0%1st Place
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9.33Roger Williams University1.533.6%1st Place
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8.51Old Dominion University1.594.4%1st Place
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4.02Harvard University3.0520.2%1st Place
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6.84Bowdoin College2.067.6%1st Place
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7.85Northeastern University1.716.2%1st Place
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12.02Northwestern University0.451.5%1st Place
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11.34University of Vermont0.722.1%1st Place
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7.54Connecticut College1.926.6%1st Place
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7.42Yale University1.907.6%1st Place
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9.3Salve Regina University1.314.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Michels | 8.9% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Stephanie Houck | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| Maks Groom | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Trevor Davis | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Ben Rosenberg | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 4.2% |
| Riley Read | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 8.0% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 4.4% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.3% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 20.2% | 17.3% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Will Priebe | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Nikolas Chambers | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 16.2% | 36.1% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 17.3% | 25.4% |
| CJ Mckenna | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 1.9% |
| Nathan Sih | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Nils Tullberg | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 8.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.