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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College1.92+6.50vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.12+4.79vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.06+3.83vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.38+1.78vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University1.31+4.45vs Predicted
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6Yale University1.90+1.38vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.71+1.10vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.05-4.19vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.08-1.35vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93-2.63vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.59-2.64vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University1.53-3.04vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.59-4.39vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.72-2.63vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University0.45-2.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.5Connecticut College1.926.3%1st Place
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6.79Tufts University2.127.4%1st Place
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6.83Bowdoin College2.068.0%1st Place
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5.78Dartmouth College2.3811.3%1st Place
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9.45Salve Regina University1.313.5%1st Place
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7.38Yale University1.906.2%1st Place
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8.1Northeastern University1.715.8%1st Place
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3.81Harvard University3.0521.9%1st Place
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7.65Stanford University2.086.7%1st Place
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7.37Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.936.6%1st Place
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8.36University of Rhode Island1.595.1%1st Place
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8.96Roger Williams University1.534.4%1st Place
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8.61Old Dominion University1.593.6%1st Place
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11.37University of Vermont0.721.7%1st Place
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12.04Northwestern University0.451.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Mckenna | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Trevor Davis | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| William Michels | 11.3% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Nils Tullberg | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 8.8% |
| Nathan Sih | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Will Priebe | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.0% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 21.9% | 18.3% | 15.6% | 12.2% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephanie Houck | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 1.8% |
| Maks Groom | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 2.0% |
| Ben Rosenberg | 5.1% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.0% |
| Riley Read | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 5.6% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 4.5% |
| Ryan Potter | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 16.9% | 25.4% |
| Nikolas Chambers | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 15.9% | 37.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.