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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.38+4.79vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.59+6.16vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.05+0.86vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.06+2.92vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.08+2.76vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.53+3.21vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.59+1.59vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.12-1.16vs Predicted
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9Yale University1.90-1.65vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College1.92-2.32vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93-3.87vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University0.45-0.14vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.71-4.88vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.72-2.75vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University1.31-5.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.79Dartmouth College2.389.4%1st Place
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8.16University of Rhode Island1.594.9%1st Place
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3.86Harvard University3.0521.1%1st Place
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6.92Bowdoin College2.068.1%1st Place
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7.76Stanford University2.086.0%1st Place
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9.21Roger Williams University1.533.5%1st Place
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8.59Old Dominion University1.595.5%1st Place
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6.84Tufts University2.127.7%1st Place
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7.35Yale University1.907.0%1st Place
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7.68Connecticut College1.926.7%1st Place
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7.13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.937.4%1st Place
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11.86Northwestern University0.451.8%1st Place
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8.12Northeastern University1.714.9%1st Place
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11.25University of Vermont0.722.7%1st Place
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9.48Salve Regina University1.313.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Michels | 9.4% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Ben Rosenberg | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 3.4% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 21.1% | 18.2% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Stephanie Houck | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Riley Read | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 7.6% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 5.0% |
| Trevor Davis | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| Nathan Sih | 7.0% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 1.6% |
| CJ Mckenna | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Maks Groom | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Nikolas Chambers | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 15.5% | 36.0% |
| Will Priebe | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 2.6% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 16.0% | 26.2% |
| Nils Tullberg | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 8.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.