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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.38+5.00vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.59+6.70vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.08+4.64vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College1.92+3.59vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.06+1.85vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+1.11vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.12-0.19vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.05-4.22vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University1.53+0.17vs Predicted
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10Yale University1.90-2.42vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.71-2.99vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University1.31-2.66vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island1.59-4.79vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.45-2.11vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.72-3.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.0Dartmouth College2.389.0%1st Place
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8.7Old Dominion University1.593.8%1st Place
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7.64Stanford University2.086.3%1st Place
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7.59Connecticut College1.925.9%1st Place
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6.85Bowdoin College2.067.5%1st Place
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7.11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.937.8%1st Place
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6.81Tufts University2.128.2%1st Place
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3.78Harvard University3.0522.6%1st Place
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9.17Roger Williams University1.534.4%1st Place
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7.58Yale University1.905.9%1st Place
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8.01Northeastern University1.715.7%1st Place
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9.34Salve Regina University1.314.0%1st Place
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8.21University of Rhode Island1.595.2%1st Place
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11.89Northwestern University0.451.9%1st Place
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11.33University of Vermont0.722.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Michels | 9.0% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Ciszewski | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.2% |
| Stephanie Houck | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.7% |
| CJ Mckenna | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Maks Groom | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Trevor Davis | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 22.6% | 16.8% | 16.4% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Riley Read | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% |
| Nathan Sih | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| Will Priebe | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% |
| Nils Tullberg | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 7.8% |
| Ben Rosenberg | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 3.6% |
| Nikolas Chambers | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 16.9% | 34.4% |
| Ryan Potter | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 17.1% | 26.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.